From left: India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, with the chief executives of OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Anthropic, Dario Amodei, at the AI Impact summit in Delhi. From left: India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, with the chief executives of OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Anthropic, Dario Amodei, at the AI Impact summit in Delhi. AI hit: India hungry to harness US tech giants' technology at Delhi summit Narendra Modi's thirst to supercharge economic growth is matched by US desire to inject AI into world's biggest democracy I ndia celebrates 80 years of independence from the UK in August 2027. At about that same moment, "early versions of true super intelligence" could emerge, Sam Altman, the co-founder of OpenAI, said this week. It's a looming coincidence that raised a charged question at the AI Impact summit in Delhi, hosted by India's prime minister, Narendra Modi: can India avoid returning to the status of a vassal state when it imports AI to raise the prospects of its 1.4 billion people? Modi's hunger to harness AI's capability is great.

The achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is dependent upon strategic resource distribution. We propose a causal discovery framework using Panel Vector Autoregression, along with both country-specific fixed effects and PCMCI+ conditional independence testing on 168 countries (2000-2025) to develop the first complete causal architecture of SDG dependencies. Utilizing 8 strategically chosen SDGs, we identify a distributed causal network (i.e., no single 'hub' SDG), with 10 statistically significant Granger-causal relationships identified as 11 unique direct effects. Education to Inequality is identified as the most statistically significant direct relationship (r = -0.599; p < 0.05), while effect magnitude significantly varies depending on income levels (e.g., high-income: r = -0.65; lower-middle-income: r = -0.06; non-significant). We also reject the idea that there exists a single 'keystone' SDG. Additionally, we offer a proposed tiered priority framework for the SDGs namely, identifying upstream drivers (Education, Growth), enabling goals (Institutions, Energy), and downstream outcomes (Poverty, Health). Therefore, we conclude that effective SDG acceleration can be accomplished through coordinated multi-dimensional intervention(s), and that single-goal sequential strategies are insufficient.

'I am betting big,' said Peter Kyle at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. 'I am betting big,' said Peter Kyle at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. 'I'm picking winners': UK business secretary takes activist approach to economic growth AI evangelist Peter Kyle wants to scale up businesses, attract overseas investors and look out for UK's poorer regions The UK business secretary, Peter Kyle, has said he is "betting big" and "picking winners" as the government takes direct stakes in growing businesses to boost economic growth. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, have been talking up Britain's prospects, Kyle said ministers were taking an "activist" approach to industrial policy. The idea of "picking winners" is closely associated with the Conservative prime minister Margaret Thatcher's attacks on Labour's 1970s strategy and her argument that it should be the private sector that decides which companies thrive.

UK launches taskforce to'break down barriers' for women in technology The government has launched a new taskforce it says will help women enter, stay and lead in the UK tech sector. Led by technology secretary Liz Kendall, it will see female leaders from tech companies and organisations advise the government on how to boost diversity and economic growth in the industry. BCS, the Chartered Institute for IT, recently suggested women accounted for only 22% of those working in IT specialist roles in the UK. Ms Kendall said the Women in Tech group would break down the barriers that still hold too many people back. When women are inspired to take on a role in tech and have a seat at the table, the sector can make more representative decisions, build products that serve everyone, she said.

Would artificial intelligence (AI) cut interest rates or adopt conservative monetary policy? Would it deregulate or opt for a more controlled economy? As AI use by economic policymakers, academics, and market participants grows exponentially, it is becoming critical to understand AI preferences over economic policy. However, these preferences are not yet systematically evaluated and remain a black box. This paper makes a conjoint experiment on leading large language models (LLMs) from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, asking them to evaluate economic policy under multi-factor constraints. The results are remarkably consistent across models: most LLMs exhibit a strong preference for high growth, low unemployment, and low inequality over traditional macroeconomic concerns such as low inflation and low public debt. Scenario-specific experiments show that LLMs are sensitive to context but still display strong preferences for low unemployment and low inequality even in monetary-policy settings. Numerical sensitivity tests reveal intuitive responses to quantitative changes but also uncover non-linear patterns such as loss aversion.

Addressing climate change requires coordinated policy efforts of nations worldwide. These efforts are informed by scientific reports, which rely in part on Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), prominent tools used to assess the economic impacts of climate policies. However, traditional IAMs optimize policies based on a single objective, limiting their ability to capture the trade-offs among economic growth, temperature goals, and climate justice. As a result, policy recommendations have been criticized for perpetuating inequalities, fueling disagreements during policy negotiations. We introduce Justice, the first framework integrating IAM with Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MOMARL). By incorporating multiple objectives, Justice generates policy recommendations that shed light on equity while balancing climate and economic goals. Further, using multiple agents can provide a realistic representation of the interactions among the diverse policy actors. We identify equitable Pareto-optimal policies using our framework, which facilitates deliberative decision-making by presenting policymakers with the inherent trade-offs in climate and economic policy.

Urban economic vitality is a crucial indicator of a city's long-term growth potential, comprising key metrics such as the annual number of new companies and the population employed. However, modeling urban economic vitality remains challenging. This study develops ECO-GROW, a multi-graph framework modeling China's inter-city networks (2005-2021) to generate urban embeddings that model urban economic vitality. Traditional approaches relying on static city-level aggregates fail to capture a fundamental dynamic: the developmental trajectory of one city today may mirror that of its structurally similar counterparts tomorrow. ECO-GROW overcomes this limitation by integrating industrial linkages, POI similarities, migration similarities and temporal network evolution over 15 years. The framework combines a Dynamic Top-K GCN to adaptively select influential inter-city connections and an adaptive Graph Scorer mechanism to dynamically weight cross-regional impacts. Additionally, the model incorporates a link prediction task based on Barabasi Proximity, optimizing the graph representation. Experimental results demonstrate ECO-GROW's superior accuracy in predicting entrepreneurial activities and employment trends compared to conventional models. By open-sourcing our code, we enable government agencies and public sector organizations to leverage big data analytics for evidence-based urban planning, economic policy formulation, and resource allocation decisions that benefit society at large.

We evaluate whether persona-based prompting improves Large Language Model (LLM) performance on macroeconomic forecasting tasks. Using 2,368 economics-related personas from the PersonaHub corpus, we prompt GPT-4o to replicate the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters across 50 quarterly rounds (2013-2025). We compare the persona-prompted forecasts against the human experts panel, across four target variables (HICP, core HICP, GDP growth, unemployment) and four forecast horizons. We also compare the results against 100 baseline forecasts without persona descriptions to isolate its effect. We report two main findings. Firstly, GPT-4o and human forecasters achieve remarkably similar accuracy levels, with differences that are statistically significant yet practically modest. Our out-of-sample evaluation on 2024-2025 data demonstrates that GPT-4o can maintain competitive forecasting performance on unseen events, though with notable differences compared to the in-sample period. Secondly, our ablation experiment reveals no measurable forecasting advantage from persona descriptions, suggesting these prompt components can be omitted to reduce computational costs without sacrificing accuracy. Our results provide evidence that GPT-4o can achieve competitive forecasting accuracy even on out-of-sample macroeconomic events, if provided with relevant context data, while revealing that diverse prompts produce remarkably homogeneous forecasts compared to human panels.

This paper presents a methodological approach to financial time series analysis by combining causal discovery and uncertainty-aware forecasting. As a case study, we focus on four key U.S. macroeconomic indicators -- GDP, economic growth, inflation, and unemployment -- and we apply the LPCMCI framework with Gaussian Process Distance Correlation (GPDC) to uncover dynamic causal relationships in quarterly data from 1970 to 2021. Our results reveal a robust unidirectional causal link from economic growth to GDP and highlight the limited connectivity of inflation, suggesting the influence of latent factors. Unemployment exhibits strong autore-gressive dependence, motivating its use as a case study for probabilistic forecasting. Leveraging the Chronos framework, a large language model trained for time series, we perform zero-shot predictions on unemployment. This approach delivers accurate forecasts one and two quarters ahead, without requiring task-specific training. Crucially, the model's uncertainty-aware predictions yield 90% confidence intervals, enabling effective anomaly detection through statistically principled deviation analysis. This study demonstrates the value of combining causal structure learning with probabilistic language models to inform economic policy and enhance forecasting robustness.

If AI takes over many jobs, how will people make a living? If AI takes over many jobs, how will people make a living? Once the AI bubble pops, we'll all suffer. Could that be better than letting it grow unabated? The Guardian's journalism is independent.